Timeline setting up for 2023
What’s on our mind: A review of 2022 and what we think is coming in 2023.
Prelude:
What’s on our mind:
2023 will be a make-or-break year for the property markets in Australia.
Either:
The most aggressive rate hike cycle in the Reserve Bank of Australia’s history (and other central banks globally) will come down on the Australian property market like a wrecking ball.
OR
The markets have already bottomed, and a slowdown in rate hikes by the Reserve Bank Of Australia will lead to a partial rebound in property prices in the new year (2023).
We are firmly in the 1st camp and have spent most of the year writing about why we think this scenario is likely to play out.
Today we are resurfacing a batch of articles that we think come together to perfectly layout our thesis, we recommend reading them in order from one through to five.
What happened in 2021 stays in 2021 - Here, we take a trip down memory lane and set the scene for how we got to where we are today, from the record stimulus measures in 2020-2021 to the unprecedented lending done by the Aussie banks.
Australian property bubble - What would Ray Dalio think? - Here, we explore the definition of a property bubble and then check to see if the Australian property market fits its description. HINT* it does.
Property hall of shame with a side of rate hikes - Here, we feature a popular series showing some real estate investment failures (purchases during the boom years and subsequent sales now). Some of the losses will shock you.
Higher rates for longer and a looming refinancing crisis - Here, we touch on the coming fixed-rate mortgage cliff and compare it to the US housing market collapse, which brought about the Global Financial Crisis in 2008 - the similarities will surprise you.
Cash rate at 2012 levels - How about house prices? - Here, we summarise where we ended 2022 and what we think is coming for the Australian property market in 2023.
To read our full archive of articles, check out our Substack here.
Happy holidays and thanks for reading,
Aus_Prop team.
Thanks for the effort to get these substacks out team.